June 4, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to see its worst August performance since the 2015 bear market — and it could be even worse next month.

Data from on-chain analytics resources coin glass Shows that BTC/USD hasn’t had such a bad August in seven years.

September means an average 5.9% BTC price loss

After two major BTC price drops in recent weeks, Bitcoin holders are understandably fearful — but historically, September has been even worse than August.

At $20,000, BTC/USD is down 14% this month, making this August the biggest loser since 2015, when the pair posted an 18.67% red monthly candle.

The ensuing years proved that August could be a mixed bag in terms of BTC’s price performance — for example, in 2017, the largest cryptocurrency rose by more than 65% on a bullish record.

However, when it comes to possible price direction, the month no one is guessing is September. Since Coinglass records began in 2013, Bitcoin has been known for “red” months, with an average loss of nearly 6%.

This time, a combination of macro instability and tradition has led analysts to make pessimistic forecasts.

“Overall, the stock market isn’t looking good right now, so BTC’s drop reflects that,” said trader Josh Rager. Summarize Because Bitcoin threatens the $20,000 support.

“Overall, September has not been a good month historically. Might be down here and end up being a buyer opportunity for the next few months. I would be a long-term spot buyer below $20k.”

Rager went on to debate whether bitcoin in the Mt. Gox repair process could potentially be sold en masse by creditors after waiting eight years. as Cointelegraph reportmany people believe that such an event will not happen, and the contrary fears are unfounded.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

Monthly chart ‘looks really ugly’

When it comes to the monthly close, nervous commentators are focused on whether Bitcoin can avoid a monthly candle close to the $20,000 mark.

Related: Why September Could Be an Ugly Month for Bitcoin Price

Failing to do so, BTC/USD will rival June in terms of lows that haven’t been on the charts since late 2020.

To make matters worse, such an event could spark a snowball sell-off, one closely watched Galaxy Trading warned Twitter followers over the weekend.

“Things look really ugly on monthly TF,” it says wrote that day.

“If the monthly candle closes below 20k in 3 days, this could trigger a big drop to the next big support at at least 14k. Reason close below 19900 would imply a bearish engulfing candle, which is very bad in a big TF.”

As highlighted by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, a sharp dip below $20,000 would violate the pivot zone since the first break above that level in 2020.

“Bitcoin looks poised for a deeper retest of a key pivot range identified by using the monthly wick & close in December 2017. This range acted as perfect resistance in 2019 and in 2020 the launch pad and has been trying to act as a prop for 2022,” he said. explain About the monthly chart.

BTC/USD 1-month candle (screenshot).Source: Caleb Franzen/Twitter

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk and you should do your own research when making a decision.