March 24, 2023

Disclaimer: The results of the analysis below are the author’s sole opinion and should not be considered investment advice

After multiple attempts to break $30 resistance in mid-August, Avalanche [AVAX] A break below its 200 EMA (green) marks a strong bearish recovery.

In search of new lows, alt outlines two-week trendline resistance (white, dashed). Bulls are now likely to target a near-term bearish swing breakout in the coming sessions.

At press time, AVAX is trading at $20.1, down 2.95% over the past 24 hours.

AVAX 4 hour chart

Source: TradingView, AVAX/USDT

AVAX’s previous bull run slowed to the $30 level after the index rose from its July lows. Subsequent reversals over the past two weeks have witnessed a bearish pennant during this time.

While two-week trendline resistance collided with the apex area of ​​a bearish pennant, AVAX marked an expected breakdown, triggering double-digit losses over the past three days. Meanwhile, the 20 EMA (red) and 50 EMA (cyan) are looking south after a death cross with the 200 EMA. As the sellers lead the near-term trend, they are aiming for a two-week trendline resistance.

But buyers have been securing the benchmark price of $19.7 for more than three weeks. Therefore, a potential bounce from this support could set the stage for a short-term upside in the coming sessions.

In this case, the potential target would be between $21 and $23. Then, the south-looking EMA could pose a recovery hurdle before pushing the bearish edge.


Source: TradingView, AVAX/USDT

This Relative Strength Index (RSI) It showed a one-sided bearish edge as it entered the oversold mark. A possible recovery from these lows could give the altcoin a near-term recovery.

Furthermore, the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) A higher trough is marked while showing a bullish divergence from price. A streak of such high lows could reconfirm the easing of selling intensity.

Nonetheless, buyers must wait for a potential bullish crossover MACD line to identify opportunities for a strong revival.

in conclusion

Given the three-week support at $19.7 and the bullish divergence from the oversold RSI and A/D, AVAX buyers will be keen to retest the 20/50 EMA in the coming days. Any close below $19.7 would imply bullish invalidation. The goals will remain the same as discussed.

Finally, broader sentiment analysis and on-chain development should be considered for profitable moves.

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