- In August, Biden’s polling average was trending upward.
- Biden’s favorability has gradually deteriorated during his presidency.
- That trend has now reversed, and his August victory appears to be responsible.
President Joe Biden just took a big hit in the polls.
After nearly a year of opinion polls hovering in the low 40s, Biden unexpectedly rose in August. It’s a pivotal time for the 79-year-old president and his party, with the midterm elections just over two months away and questions lingering about whether he should pass the re-election bid.
Latest data point from blue chip poll conducted by Gallup, has been measuring the favorability of U.S. presidents since the Truman administration. According to them, Biden’s approval rating was just 38% in July, a new term low, the latest in a series of polls that have gradually declined. The poll, conducted July 5-26, paints a dire picture for the president, just as his legislative agenda appears to be on life support in the Senate.
A Gallup poll in August, which ran from Aug. 3 to Aug. 21, showed his approval rating at 44 percent, still slightly below the mark, but a significant increase of 6 percentage points in a month. .This fluctuation is excellence.
However, August was an extraordinary month for Biden.
Gallup
On the second day of the month, his administration announced that it had successfully killed the al Qaeda leader in a drone strike. On Aug. 7, the Senate passed the Reducing Inflation Act, a long-awaited climate and health care bill that, as recently as July, appeared to have been shelved. Just this past week, the government announced an executive order for student loan forgiveness that would see $10,000 in loan forgiveness for eligible borrowers and $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients.
In fact, if the volatility in the polls was related to the successful IRA legislative plan that the president actually signed into law on Aug. 16, only about a third of Gallup’s sample responded after signing it. This may just be the beginning of the upswing.
That said, Gallup isn’t alone here: FiveThirtyEight’s Approval Tracker For Biden, the August polls totaled fewer than 40, showing a clear reversal in the president’s fortunes. According to their polling averages, Biden’s approval rating bottomed out on July 21 with 37.5 percent approval and 57.2 disapproval.
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As of the most recent average on Aug. 26, 41.6% approve and 53.6% disapprove. That’s a 4 percent gain in weeks, and the momentum Biden and Democrats desperately need to avoid a blowout in November.
Perhaps most encouraging for Democrats is the source of that support. In a world where this bump is simply the result of Biden skeptical Democrats who would not have considered supporting Republicans in November, only to go home after a month of success for party priorities.
But in fact, it’s not. It comes from independents.
Gallup
In July, only 31 percent of political independents had a favorable view of Biden. That percentage rose 9 percentage points to 40 percent in August.
Gallup polling data crosstab also confirmed Poll by Morning Consult This found the same result.exist Their August 2022 pollBiden’s approval rating among registered voters is 43%, up 6 points from 37% the previous year July.
Who drove that? independent. Among this group of voters, Biden’s approval rating rose 6 points from 27% in July to 33% in August. The poll, which was conducted Aug. 19-21, is likely to capture recent legislative successes.
There is also evidence that this is because of the IRA. In a Morning Consult poll in July, 38 percent of registered voters and 33 percent of independents supported Biden’s handling of climate change. As of August, it rose 8 percentage points to 46 percent of voters and 41 percent of independents. Similar but slightly less pronounced upward trends have been seen in health care and employment issues, each of which is covered in some way in the IRA.
Biden is still underwater — his disapproval outweighs his support among overall and independents — but for the first time in his administration, his polling numbers appear to have actually surfaced.
